In an election year when
an incumbent is running for reelection, late winter to early spring is,
more often than not, a time when the incumbent begins to gain a more
solid footing in framing the general election, and the challenger party
is struggling with moving beyond the necessity to focus on the primary
electorate, and beginning to draw the contrast between themselves and
the incumbent. Even against the most endangered incumbent, February,
March, and even April, is a time when the process of reelecting or
rejecting the incumbent has not yet begun for the vast majority of the
American electorate.
It is also a time of warning signs for both
the incumbent party of the White House and the party that is set on
replacing that incumbent. There are also signs that could lead both
sides to be optimistic about victory in November, none of which are
predictive of the ultimate outcome. It is a time when the campaign is
beginning in earnest.
This presidential race is
following this time-honored pattern. The vigorous and hotly contested
Republican primary campaign has clearly kept the message focused inward,
while having an impact with the broader group of voters.
