— For 35 years, prophets of the “paperless office” have been waiting
for any convincing shred of evidence that Americans are less committed
to paper.
The paradox of the digital age, at least until the
economy soured, is that a Web-connected, wireless world was using far
more paper than it did before trashing its typewriters.
But with greater access to information comes the
convenience of the printer, the 100-copy click and the Mapquest
directions you toss in your car.
Meanwhile, book sales and global paper production
keep rising, and Christmas shoppers remain miffed by gift receipts the
length of their arms.
About a year ago, however,
Using computer software that monitors the whirring of 700,000 printers
and multifunctional devices in businesses, Wang charted the first-ever
drop in the number of pages Americans were printing.
“It was like going over a waterfall,” said Wang, an
analyst for the business consultant and market-research firm IDC.
“Starting with the fourth quarter of 2008, we saw a definite drop in
page outputs,” which nonetheless totaled 1.5 trillion pages for the
year — or 5,000 sheets of printouts per man, woman and child.
That number will be lower this year, perhaps by more
than 10 percent, though it had been climbing steadily since 2000. A
temporary effect of the slow economy, or the beginning of a society
truly less glued to paper?
“When an economy sheds millions of workers, there
are that many employees who aren’t doing the printing,” Wang said. “I’m
thinking fewer contracts are signed. Fewer documents sent from one
person to another.”
He expects our passion for printouts to climb again
when the economy does, maybe in 2011. But the dip in pages printed does
parallel a downward slide in the number of pieces of first-class mail
being delivered by the
Postal officials do not anticipate ever delivering so many cards, letters and utility bills again, even after the recovery.
Experts have envisioned the dawn of a paperless society ever since a Business Week article in 1975 described “
“We will be able to call up documents on the screen
from stored files. By simply pressing a button, we will be able to get
mail messages from others … “
Spot on as predictions go — yet since then, the
annual consumption of paper around the world has more than tripled,
according to the
“The idea of a paperless society? It will never happen, and I do believe that,” said
By that he means we really ought to be using less paper in the coming decade due to the convergence of four trends:
The pressure on businesses to cut costs where they can, especially in a weak economy.
Technology that will reduce paper output, erase printouts and make reading off a screen easier.
Concerns for the environment (with paper manufacturers being the fourth-largest user of fossil fuels on the planet, Joyce said).
The rise of “digital natives,” or people younger than 25.
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At
decision a few years back to make course catalogues available only
online made perfect sense to students born after the advent of the
personal computer, said college spokeswoman
“They’re not the ones we get complaints from,” Haas
said. Their parents and older students prefer catalogues they can flip
through, even though the information could be out of date a few months
after printing.
To be sure, generational preferences dictate the paper trends.
To older people, “there’s a psychology to paper, reading something on paper you can hold,” said
“Yet that feeling of control is something the
younger generation doesn’t seem to have the need for,” she said,
particularly those who spent their youth on the couch with a laptop on
their bellies.
In his book “Slow Reading,” 30-something computer enthusiast
“Reading short snippets on the Web is convenient,
and I consider it wasteful to print them. However, if the content I
have found is anything longer than a few pages … I prefer to read it
in print.”
A recent
survey showed the popularity of electronic bank statements hitting a
wall this year, with roughly half of online consumers sticking to paper
statements only. Seniors and baby boomers, when compared to younger
people, were twice as likely to voice concerns for privacy and a need
to have “the paper version for my records.”
Corporations eager to cut costs want the public to come around to paperless. In 2007 the
helped companies shave a huge expense when it lifted the rule enforcing
the mandatory mailing of annual reports to shareholders.
A
One holdup, said chemist
is that while a few companies want the print to vanish in a day, many
others would prefer a more complicated technology in which the words
stay for three days or longer.
“Of course, the interest is huge,” Goredema said.
For printouts that fade to white in 16 hours, “we could’ve gone out and
put it on the market.
“But we want to better understand what our customers really want.”
Via McClatchy-Tribune News Service.
