CHARLOTTE, N.C.
— The four states that Democrats are considering to host their 2012
national convention showed off their hospitality last week — to
Republicans.
The GOP scored big wins in North Carolina, Minnesota, Missouri and Ohio, all home to cities that are finalists for the Democratic convention.
What that means to their chances of landing the convention is unclear.
Steven Smith, a political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis, says Charlotte, St. Louis and Minneapolis may have lost ground to Cleveland — despite the fact that Ohio Democrats took a drubbing in their state legislature and Congress.
“Ohio went so strongly Republican at every level that because of the size of Ohio, it’s going to be given priority in … siting decisions,” Smith says. “You don’t want to give up on a state like Ohio.”
Democrats are expected to name a host city toward
the end of the year. Teams of technical advisers visited the finalist
cities last summer. Many analysts say the choice will turn mainly on a
city’s convention facilities, hotel accommodations and ability to raise
the $40 million needed to help pay for it all.
But politics will be a consideration.
In 2008, Democrats chose Denver
with an eye on the strategic and symbolic value of showcasing a region
that usually voted solid Republican. They wanted to show Democrats
could be competitive. And they were, in Colorado and New Mexico.
Their final choices for 2012 suggest politics could be a factor again.
North Carolina, Missouri and Ohio were always considered swing states for the next presidential election. Now some add Minnesota.
That state, usually reliably blue, not only lost a longtime Democratic congressman but, like North Carolina, saw Republicans take the majority in the state legislature for the first time in decades.
“The biggest factors and considerations are logistical,” says University of Minnesota political scientist Kathryn Pearson. “The fact that Minnesota appears to be at least a swing state these days, a state that will be in play in 2012, may matter around the margins.”
Missouri, which went for Republican presidential candidate John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008, also lost a longtime Democratic congressman in last week’s midterm elections. Its legislature stayed red.
But Ohio Democrats may have suffered the most. They lost five U.S. House seats, a Senate race, the governorship and the state House. Paradoxically, some say that may help Cleveland’s chances.
“We’re more pivotal to the Democratic chances,” says political scientist Joel Lieske of Cleveland State University. “Ohio has more electoral votes and is more symbolic of being the heartland of the country.”
Ohio is
expected to lose two of its 20 electoral votes after redistricting,
which is tied to its population change after the 2010 census. That
would give it just three more electoral votes than North Carolina currently has. Missouri and Minnesota have fewer.
Advocates for Charlotte tout the fact that it’s a gateway to the South, where Obama won three states in 2008 including North Carolina. But political scientist Merle Black of Emory University, an expert on Southern politics, says it will be hard for Obama to replicate that in two years.
Republicans hold all but two Southern governorships — North Carolina
is one of the two with Democratic governors. The GOP also now has 93 of
the region’s 130 congressional seats. That number could increase in
2012 after GOP controlled-legislatures across the South draw more
Republican-leaning congressional districts.
“Republicans are in the strongest position they’ve
been in to draw these lines than ever in history,” Black says. “Right
now it looks pretty grim for Democrats in the South, and not just in
the South (but also) the Midwest and mountain plains.”
Will Miller, acting chairman of “Charlotte
in 2012,” said: “Hopefully, somebody will see that the politics are at
worst neutral (or) at best in our favor. … We believe we’re the best
place to host it, politics or no politics.”
The convention is set for September 2012. The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary take place that February, less than 15 months away.
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CONVENTION CALCULUS
Last week’s election changed the political landscapes in each of the four states that could host the 2012 Democratic National Convention. Here’s a scorecard.
Minnesota
Congress: Eighteen-term Democratic Rep. Jim Oberstar lost.
Legislature: Republicans won both chambers for the first time in 40 years.
Governor: Democrat Mark Dayton clings to a slim lead in his bid to succeed retiring GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
Minneapolis mayor: Democrat R.T. Rybak.
Outlook: After years as a safe blue state, Minnesota could be in play for both parties in 2012. “Now it looks like Minnesota is state that could potentially go Republican,” says Kathryn Pearson, a political scientist at the University of Minnesota.
Missouri
Congress: Republican Roy Blunt won an open GOP-held Senate seat; 17-term Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton lost.
Legislature: GOP continued to hold both chambers.
Governor: Democrat Jay Nixon, elected in 2008.
St. Louis mayor: Democrat Francis Slay.
Outlook: The “Show-me state” showed it still leans Republican. It also stands to lose one of its 11 electoral votes.
“I think Missouri’s chances were hurt,” says political scientist Steven Smith of Washington University in St. Louis. “It’s going to be hard to persuade that Missouri is a high-priority state for the White House right now.”
North Carolina
Congress: Democrat Rep. Bob Etheridge lost his House seat. Republican Sen. Richard Burr won re-election.
Legislature: General Assembly switched to GOP control for first time in 112 years.
Governor: Democrat Bev Perdue, elected in 2008.
Charlotte mayor: Democrat Anthony Foxx.
Outlook: Still one of only two Southern states with
a Democratic governor. Obama carried the state in 2008 by a scant
14,000 votes out of 4.3 million. GOP resurgence here and across the
South will make it harder to crack any Southern state in 2012.
Ohio
Congress: Republican Rob Portman won an open GOP-held Senate seat. Democrats lost five House seats.
Legislature: Democrats lost the state House. Republicans maintained control of the Senate.
Governor: GOP’s John Kasich ousted Democratic incumbent.
Cleveland mayor: Democrat Frank Jackson.
Outlook: Cleveland lacks the hotel space of other cities. And even though the 2010 census is likely to cost Ohio two House seats — and electoral votes — due to population shifts, there’s no denying Ohio is one of the pivotal swing states. “When an election comes to the wire, it’s Ohio that the eyes of the nation turn to,” says political scientist Joel Lieske of Cleveland State University.
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