Front-runner in Mexican gubernatorial race is ambushed, killed

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CIUDAD JUAREZ, MexicoRodolfo Torre, the front-runner in this weekend’s gubernatorial election in the violence-plagued northern state of Tamaulipas, was ambushed and killed Monday.

The slayings of Torre and four other people in his
party underscored what analysts and officials on both sides of the
border said was the pervasive influence of criminal organization and
their determination to decide the outcome of who governs Mexico.

In a country faced with so many deaths that it often
appears stoic, the killing of Torre drew widespread condemnation from
all political parties and from officials on both sides of the border
amid fresh fears that the violence in Mexico is threatening the democratic process.

In Mexico City, President Felipe Calderon spoke to the nation, condemned the assassination, and called for unity,
saying the killing of Torre “was an act not only against a candidate of
a political party but against democratic institutions, and it requires
a united and firm response from all those who work for democracy.”

In Washington, a State Department spokesman said the government “lamented the loss of life.”

Torre, a member of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, was traveling from his home in Ciudad Victoria
to the airport in a sports utility vehicle early Monday when gunmen
opened fire. In all, five people were killed, including bodyguards and
state congressman Enrique Blackmore, also of the PRI party. Four people remain hospitalized.

Officials declined to comment about the
investigation into Torre’s killing, although some said the killing
magnified the uncertainty in Tamaulipas, a state bordering Texas
in which the Gulf cartel has been battling its former employees, the
paramilitary group known as the Zetas, since the beginning of 2010.

As part of the investigation, said Fred Burton, intelligence analyst at Austin, Texas-based
Stratfor, “You have to look at the political candidate and look into
whether he had a foot in one camp or was he standing in both?”

People who knew the candidate well describe Torre, a
former physician and father of three, as a “decent man” who wanted his
state to succeed. He campaigned on a platform to improve security in Tamaulipas, bring jobs in part by further integrating the state’s economy with that of Texas, they said. All asked to remain anonymous, explaining that they feared reprisal.

A candidate to replace Torre was expected to be
announced as early as Tuesday, an early indication that the election
will not be suspended.

In recent weeks, politicians across Mexico
have been threatened and executed by suspected drug traffickers, but
Torre was the highest ranking and most senior official to be targeted
since presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio was gunned down following a political rally in 1994.

A U.S. law intelligence official, speaking on the
condition of anonymity, said the killing of Torre marks a new chapter
and represents a darker and more imminent threat to Mexico in which politicians will increasingly be targeted.

“Targeting politicians in Mexico
is not new, but this is a disturbing sign that this will happen on a
more systematic level,” said the official, explaining that the killing
indicates that the interest of criminal groups goes beyond controlling
drug distribution routes and now includes control or influence of key
states such as Tamaulipas.

“This will only create more anxiety among politicians. It will affect Mexico’s
entire political system,” as the violence is expected to escalate
between members of organized crime wanting to cement their influence in
key states.

“This signals that things are going to get considerably worse before they get better,” said Douglas Farah, a Washington-based security consultant and former journalist who covered Colombia’s bloody war for several years. “That’s sad for Mexico. Because once this cycle starts it’s really hard to stop before more damage is inflicted.”

Mexico, which
holds elections across the country for local and state office, has
already recorded one of the bloodiest electoral cycles. Several
candidates have pulled out of races. The anxiety is especially felt in
the states of Tamaulipas, Chihuahua, the central state of Michoacan and Hidalgo.

Tamaulipas and Chihuahua, both bordering Texas, have been particularly bloody. Last May, a mayoral candidate in Villa Hermosa in Tamaulipas was gunned down. Campaign workers in Chihuahua and Sinaloa have also been targeted.

Unlike other years, campaigns have also been toned down. Here in Ciudad Juarez,
where the cry for democracy rang loud in the early 1980s, rallies have
been low-key. Campaigns end early and seem lackluster. Speeches end
before sun sets and campaign workers stay away from politicking after
darkness.

The sense of uncertainty is expected to keep voters
away from polls on Sunday. Officials in Chihuahua have called on local,
state and federal law enforcement authorities to stay away from polling
areas so as not to intimidate voters.

But some voters have already made up their minds. Here in Ciudad Juarez, Lorenza Guadalupe Salcido, 40, said she’s likely to stay away.

“If I vote, I will probably vote for the PRI, but
I’m very lukewarm,” she said. “What I am sure about is that I have no
more hope for this so-called Mexican democracy. They’re killing us as
though we’re a bunch of animals, just like this candidate in Tamaulipas. It’s horrible what happened to our country, just horrible.”

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