BEIRUT, Lebanon — A battered but still boisterous
Syrian opposition movement and a worn out and increasingly isolated
government confronted each other again on Friday on the last Muslim
Sabbath before the emotionally charged holy month of Ramadan.
Massive protests following afternoon prayers erupted
across Syria including some of the largest protests seen so far in the
symbolically potent northwestern city of Hama, where thousands were
killed in a 1982 government crackdown, and the besieged far eastern
Euphrates River city of Deir Alzour. In Deir Alzour, tens of thousands
gathered to call for the international community to take a stand against
President Bashar Assad, whose father was responsible for the 1982
bloodshed.
“Your silence is killing us,” was the message of protesters posted on social media websites.
At least nine protesters were killed Friday,
according to a network of political activists, as Assad’s uniformed and
plainclothes gunmen opened fire on demonstrators in Deir Alzour, the
coastal city of Lattakia and the southern city of Dara, where peaceful
demonstrations first broke out four months ago.
“The whole city went out in protest demanding that
those responsible for the killings in the past 24 hours are brought to
justice,” said an activist in Deir Alzour reached by phone. “People came
out in very big numbers — bigger than ever before after Wednesday’s and
Thursday’s security operation.”
Analysts and activists are gearing up for a potential
surge in political violence after the beginning of Ramadan early next
week, when pious Muslims abide by a dawn-to-dusk fast and head to
mosques twice a day. Activists and diplomats anticipate possibly
decisive events during Ramadan.
“I think the month of Ramadan will indeed be a
turning point for the Revolution,” said Ammar Abdul-Hamid, a Syrian
opposition activist and dissident in the United States. “During Ramadan,
every day will likely be a Friday, and Assad’s security forces, army
troops and death squads will have tremendous difficulty dealing with
this situation without resorting to extreme violence. This will be a red
Ramadan.”
During 2009 protests in Iran, demonstrations against
the theocratic government calmed during Ramadan only to pick up momentum
afterward before being quashed by the same combination of brute force,
mass arrests and nonstop propaganda now being employed by Syrian
authorities.
The Syrian uprising appears to have been gathering
momentum over the last few weeks. Amateur video posted to the Internet
showed endless crowds gathered in the main square of the fourth largest
city of Hama, chanting, “The people want the downfall of the regime.”
The activist reached in Deir Alzour, who asked that
his name not be published, said his city was also already in revolt.
“Now I think we will see the city turning into an open sit-in,” he said.
Despite some defections, Syria’s security forces — at
least the ones deployed to police protest hot spots, have remained
largely loyal. But many wonder whether the stress created by two public
prayer gatherings a day and the possibility of constant civil unrest
will force the country’s soldiers as well as its various plainclothes
security services, known collectively as the mukhabarat, to buckle.
“I think that perhaps we’re on our way to a breaking
point,” said a Western diplomat in Damascus. “When pressed to the
breaking point, we might see mutinies in the army and security
services.”
Still, analysts cautioned that the opposition has in the past raised expectations that were later deflated.
“If one wants to be skeptical,” said the Western
diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, “we’ve heard this before —
that this Friday and so on will be the breaking point.”
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