MIAMI — If Florida suffers a nightmare scenario of oil soaking its Gulf Coast, the economic cost could top $10 billion and put about 195,000 people out of work, according to a new report.
The grim estimates from a University of Central Florida economist involves fairly simple math: Take the value of tourism on Florida’s western coast and cut it in half.
The economist, Sean Snaith, said a 50 percent drop in tourism and related spending seemed reasonable should Florida
suffer a massive, direct hit from the Gulf oil spill. Still, he
acknowledged it’s hard to predict the consequences of a nightmare
scenario.
“The whole economic impact of the episode is a giant
layer cake of uncertainty,” Snaith said. “How many counties will be
affected? I don’t know. We won’t really know until the oil starts
washing up on the shore.”
Snaith’s warning of a $10.9 billion hit to Florida’s $740 billion economy assumes oil fouling beaches and coast line from the far western edge of the Panhandle to the Florida Keys. Tourism in Florida’s counties touching the Gulf of Mexico account for $12.4 billion in spending and about 269,000 jobs, according to Snaith’s report.
But the industry also supports businesses that never
see tourists — such as restaurant suppliers, produce trucks and retail
wholesalers.
Even a 10 percent decline in tourism throughout Florida’s Gulf coast would cost the state about $2.2 billion and 39,000 jobs, Snaith estimated.
Snaith said he has no research suggesting what kind of tourism losses would follow a Florida beach fouled by oil. No Florida beaches have closed following the April 20 Gulf rig explosion, but tar balls have been washing up along Pensacola and other beaches on the western end of Florida’s Panhandle.
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