WASHINGTON — Throngs of voters reportedly turned out in Massachusetts on Tuesday in that state’s special election to fill the late Edward M. Kennedy’s Senate seat, in a closely watched race that has Democrats fearful of losing their 60-vote majority in the upper chamber of Congress.
Scott Brown, a Republican state senator, was leading the Democratic candidate, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, in many polls going into the contest — putting at risk the Democrats’ supermajority and with it President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul and other priorities.
Brown, once a little-known lawmaker, has surprised
observers by pulling ahead of Coakley in most polls, turning the
election into a nail-biter.
A party needs 60 Senate seats to overcome filibusters and thus easily pass legislation.
As voters cast their ballots, the White House-backed overhaul for health care hung in the balance. Legislation has passed the House and Senate, but a compromise bill has yet to make it through either chamber.
Health care stocks rose along with the broader market Tuesday as investors weighed the special Senate race.
Democrats are vowing to press ahead with the legislation, no matter the outcome of the Massachusetts race. On Monday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., told reporters in San Francisco that “there is no ‘back to the drawing board.'” She said there will be a final bill “one way or the other.”
Even if Brown wins, Congress could pass
the health care bill and send it to Obama. The House could simply
approve the language of the bill that was approved 60-39 in the Senate, thus negating any need to have another vote in the Senate, where Brown’s vote could be decisive. Many House liberals, however, believe their version of the bill is superior.
On Tuesday, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said that the Senate’s health care bill would be better than none at all. “The Senate bill clearly is better than nothing,” he told reporters. “I will make that point.”
Democrats could also attempt to pass the bill
through a special process known as reconciliation that prohibits
filibusters and only requires but a simple majority in the Senate.
There is even some talk of changing the filibuster rules.
Both the White House and labor unions
poured money and political capital into the race, hoping to buoy
Coakley’s chances and hang on to the Democrats’ power in the upper
chamber. Obama spoke in support of Coakley on Sunday.
The Service Employees International Union, meanwhile, put 300 volunteers into the field and spent $685,000 on a TV ad attacking Brown, according to The Wall Street Journal.
A Brown victory could
also have an impact on proposed financial legislation. Brown has
criticized the Obama administration’s so-called financial-crisis
responsibility fee, which would be a charge on big banks with $50 billion or more in capital. The fee, which would need congressional approval, would be used to cover the remaining costs of the $700-billion
bank-bailout package as well as help reduce the deficit. Brown argues
that the tax would be passed on to consumers in the form of higher fees.
“If Brown wins, we think one of the interpretations will be that opposition to the bank tax is not politically fatal,” said Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Brian Gardner. “If Coakley wins, then we think that the bank tax will be seen as politically popular.”
A Brown win could also put additional pressure on Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., to compromise with Republicans and produce a bipartisan piece of legislation. Dodd is working with Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala.,
the panel’s ranking member, to release bipartisan legislation on bank
reform. The two senators are debating whether to include an independent
Consumer Financial Protection Agency to oversee mortgage and
credit-card products. Dodd would like to create such an agency, but he
may be open to a compromise on it.
The special election to replace Kennedy comes as
Obama marks his first year in office. It also comes as the American
public remains skeptical of the president’s proposed health care
overhaul. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 44 percent of Americans support the proposed changes to the health care system, but 51 percent oppose them.
Pollsters believe Democrats are in danger of losing at least one Senate
seat in November’s midterm congressional elections, as well as several
more seats in the House. A new president’s party typically suffers
losses in midterm elections.
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